In the complex geopolitical landscape of Syria, plans were once in motion to transition the country from Bashar al-Assad’s regime to a federal democratic government through a long-term process. However, these efforts have faced significant challenges, particularly due to the actions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan’s Surprise Offensive
Without prior notification to the United States, Erdogan launched an unexpected attack on Syrian forces and the Kurds, aligning with al-Qaida, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and 16 other jihadist factions. This military aggression led to the occupation of several Kurdish cities, signaling Erdogan’s ambition to seize the entire Kurdish region in Syria.
International Response
The international community, including the UK, France, and the United States, quickly recognized Erdogan’s actions as a threat to their strategic plans in Syria. In response, Israel destroyed Syrian military assets and took control of Mount Hermon, while the United States urgently deployed forces from Iraq and the Al-Tanf base to Kobani to deter further Turkish advances. Intelligence officials from France, the US, and Britain have since been stationed in Kobani, warning Erdogan against crossing its borders.
Erdogan’s Tactics and Ocalan’s Awareness
Frustrated by his inability to dominate Rojava, Erdogan turned to political maneuvering, sending representatives from the Democratic Party (Dem Parti) to meet with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This strategy aims to deceive the Kurds and sow discord, but Ocalan remains alert to Erdogan’s ploys.
Erdogan’s government has reportedly held multiple meetings with Ocalan—twice personally by Erdogan and six times by Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party. These overtures, viewed as attempts to manipulate the Kurdish movement in Turkey, have been met with skepticism and resolve.
The Kurdish Vision
Despite Erdogan’s strategies, the Kurdish resistance remains steadfast. Observers predict that a Kurdish state may emerge within the next four to five years, akin to the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in Iraq. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue their operations, focusing on retaking Manbij and other Kurdish territories.
A Unified Front Against Erdogan
France, America, and Britain have collectively warned Erdogan to ensure that no Turkish soldier enters the Kobani region. This firm stance underscores the international commitment to curbing Erdogan’s expansionist ambitions and supporting democratic efforts in the region.
Looking Ahead
Erdogan’s actions, characterized by military aggression and political deception, have drawn sharp criticism and resistance from both the Kurds and the international community. While his ambitions pose significant challenges, the Kurdish struggle for autonomy and democracy persists, holding the promise of a future Kurdish state within the region.